Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -500 RGV +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -8.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.3 (-10.3) | 146.0 (-13.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -6.6 (-9.6) | 145.8 (-12.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.8 (-9.8) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -7.4 (-10.4) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 25, 2022 | TAR 75 – 62 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#181) | -5.9 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#146) | -0.56 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | -0.81 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.474 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.