Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -9.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -8.2 (+4.8) | 141.7 (-4.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -8.0 (+5.0) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -7.6 (+5.4) | 142.0 (-5.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -9.2 (+3.8) | 142.9 (-5.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 4-9 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#200) | -8.0 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | -1.92 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#201) | -2.17 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.435 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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