Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +188 TAR -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +4 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -2.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+45.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -2.6 (+6.6) | 143.6 (+50.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.8 (+5.8) | 145.1 (+48.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -2.3 (+6.3) | 145.3 (+48.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.5 (+6.5) | 145.8 (+48.2) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
| Feb 25, 2022 | TAR 75 – 62 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#260) | 0.5 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#227) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#245) | 0.42 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#226) | 0.520 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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