Ich lieb dich nicht; Du liebst mich nicht. "Da da da" - Trio
Tarleton State Texans
74 – 70
FINAL Neutral Conference Hercules Tires WAC
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Western Athletic Conference · Michelob ULTRA Arena (Neutral) · March 8, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TAR -6.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money TAR -333 / RGV +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +4 144 Won
Massey TAR -5.9 (-1.9) — —
Massey Totals — 149.5 (-5.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 67% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 76% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TAR -5.3 (-1.3) 147.5 (-3.5) 72% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -5.3 (-1.3) 148.8 (-4.8) 70% ✓
Baseline ML TAR -5.2 (-1.2) 150.2 (-6.2) 68% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TAR -5.7 (-1.7) 148.4 (-4.4) 71% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 21, 2024 TAR 77 – 73 RGV
Dec 2, 2023 TAR 77 – 75 RGV
Feb 26, 2023 RGV 99 – 95 TAR
Feb 4, 2023 RGV 68 – 65 TAR
Feb 25, 2022 TAR 75 – 62 RGV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR RGV
Overall 17-17 15-17
Conference 9-9 6-12
Home 13-2 11-6
Away 2-12 4-10
Neutral 3-3 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 67.6 75.2
Avg Pts Against 70.1 81.2
Massey 0.4 (#161) -5.5 (#263)
Bradley-Terry 0.23 (#150) -0.45 (#221)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.35 (#146) -0.81 (#239)
RPI 0.515 (#147) 0.477 (#224)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR RGV
FG% 43.6% 45.3%
3PT% 33.6% 33.5%
REB / G 30.0 35.9
OREB / G 8.5 10.2
AST / TO 0.89 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 51.0%
TOV% 18.1% 22.1%
ORB% 25.4% 29.1%
FT Rate 33.7% 32.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 23.8% 16.9%
DRB% 70.0% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 35.3% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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