Tarleton State
Texans
74
–
70
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires WAC
UT Rio Grande Valley
Vaqueros
Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -333 RGV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -5.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.3 (-1.3) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.3 (-1.3) | 148.8 (-4.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.2 (-1.2) | 150.2 (-6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -5.7 (-1.7) | 148.4 (-4.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
| Feb 25, 2022 | TAR 75 – 62 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#161) | -5.5 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#150) | -0.45 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#146) | -0.81 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#147) | 0.477 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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