Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +160 TAR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.9 (-0.1) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -4.1 (+0.1) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.7 (-0.3) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -4.8 (+0.8) | 142.7 (+7.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
| Feb 25, 2022 | TAR 75 – 62 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L14 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#316) | -0.8 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#304) | 0.65 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#320) | 0.67 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#297) | 0.548 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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