Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -600 RGV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -21.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -14.2 (-12.2) | 138.0 (+14.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -12.9 (-10.9) | 137.6 (+14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -15.4 (-13.4) | 137.4 (+14.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -15.1 (-13.1) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
| Feb 25, 2022 | TAR 75 – 62 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 10-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#138) | -13.3 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#44) | -3.53 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#67) | -5.55 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#63) | 0.414 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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