Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -200 BRWN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -5.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -4.8 (-7.8) | 136.7 (-3.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -3.2 (-6.2) | 136.2 (-3.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -3.8 (-6.8) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -3.9 (-6.9) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HARV 56 – 53 BRWN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HARV 69 – 59 BRWN |
| Feb 28, 2025 | BRWN 59 – 52 HARV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HARV 80 – 67 BRWN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 68 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#149) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#173) | -0.32 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#175) | -0.55 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#156) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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