Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -163 ILL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -2.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -3.0 (-1.0) | 156.9 (+3.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.8 (-0.8) | 154.6 (+5.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -2.6 (-0.6) | 153.5 (+6.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -2.5 (-0.5) | 155.2 (+4.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#28) | 13.6 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#49) | 2.25 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#45) | 2.67 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#66) | 0.575 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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