Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -750 IOWA +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.9 (+8.1) | 171.1 (-29.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.4 (+7.6) | 166.3 (-24.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.8 (+7.2) | 168.3 (-26.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.0 (+9.0) | 169.3 (-27.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ILL 95 – 85 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#16) | 9.8 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#34) | 1.51 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#30) | 2.10 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#51) | 0.528 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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