Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -340 IOWA +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.2 (+5.8) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (+6.4) | 138.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.3 (+6.7) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.7 (+6.3) | 138.2 (-8.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ILL 95 – 85 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 24.1 (#6) | 16.9 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#9) | 2.71 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#7) | 3.44 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#8) | 0.576 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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