Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -500 IOWA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -9.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.3 (+0.7) | 168.0 (+12.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.0 (-0.0) | 166.5 (+13.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.4 (-0.4) | 169.0 (+11.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -9.0 (+1.0) | 167.9 (+12.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#14) | 11.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#26) | 1.52 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#18) | 2.03 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#19) | 0.551 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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