Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA +105 ILL -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.8 (-40.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.0 (-11.0) | 166.3 (-32.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.3 (-9.7) | 166.9 (-32.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.4 (-9.6) | 166.4 (-32.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.3 (-10.7) | 167.7 (-33.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ILL 95 – 85 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#47) | 16.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#58) | 2.38 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#50) | 3.16 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#70) | 0.604 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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