Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -550 IOWA +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (+32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.5 (+4.5) | 165.3 (+34.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.1 (+4.9) | 166.0 (+34.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.6 (+3.4) | 164.5 (+35.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -8.9 (+3.1) | 163.6 (+36.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ILL 95 – 85 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#14) | 10.0 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#28) | 1.56 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#21) | 2.22 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#39) | 0.527 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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