Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA +105 ILL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -2.0 (-8.0) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -1.2 (-7.2) | 137.8 (+6.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.5 (-6.5) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.5 (-7.5) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ILL 95 – 85 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#19) | 21.9 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#38) | 3.43 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#35) | 4.80 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#43) | 0.622 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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