Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +130 BU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -1.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.7 (+0.7) | 130.7 (+4.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -3.4 (+2.4) | 128.4 (+6.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.8 (+0.8) | 130.4 (+4.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -1.2 (+0.2) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | BU 78 – 69 L-MD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | L-MD 74 – 57 BU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | BU 68 – 66 L-MD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | L-MD 69 – 67 BU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BU 82 – 79 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#336) | -5.9 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#321) | -1.21 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#327) | -1.61 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#332) | 0.442 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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