Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +260 DREX -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -10.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -8.6 (+10.6) | 132.1 (+3.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -8.3 (+10.3) | 129.1 (+6.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -7.5 (+9.5) | 131.1 (+4.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -6.9 (+8.9) | 131.5 (+4.5) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#355) | -1.0 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#331) | -0.42 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#329) | -0.60 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#280) | 0.468 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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