Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -250 NDSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.9 (+0.1) | 145.7 (+29.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -5.7 (-0.7) | 144.5 (+30.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.6 (-0.6) | 144.7 (+30.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.4 (-0.4) | 145.0 (+30.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#175) | -4.4 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#135) | -0.83 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#169) | -0.88 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#88) | 0.473 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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