Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -111 GMU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.7 (+11.7) | 138.4 (-8.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.1 (+11.1) | 137.2 (-7.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.8 (+10.8) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.3 (+11.3) | 140.5 (-10.5) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | GMU 82 – 74 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GMU 58 – 53 LUC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LUC 80 – 59 GMU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | LUC 85 – 79 GMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | GMU 86 – 75 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#264) | 2.1 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#271) | 0.29 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#263) | 0.44 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#283) | 0.531 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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