Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic 10 Conference · Gentile Arena · January 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread GMU -11.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money LUC +525 / GMU -750
Model Predictions
Spread Total LUC win
Actual GMU +8 156 Lost
Massey GMU -13.0 (+5.0)
Massey Totals 144.0 (+12.0)
Bradley-Terry 2%
Weighted B-T 0%
Efficiency Plus ML GMU -11.2 (+3.2) 139.7 (+16.3) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML GMU -12.3 (+4.3) 140.0 (+16.0) 14%
Baseline ML GMU -11.1 (+3.1) 141.6 (+14.4) 14%
Baseline Plus ML GMU -13.0 (+5.0) 139.8 (+16.2) 14%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2025 GMU 5853 LUC
Feb 24, 2024 LUC 8059 GMU
Feb 8, 2024 LUC 8579 GMU
Feb 4, 2023 LUC 6961 GMU
Jan 7, 2023 GMU 8675 LUC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LUC GMU
Overall 9-24 23-10
Conference 4-14 11-7
Home 6-10 17-3
Away 1-10 4-6
Neutral 2-4 2-1
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 66.8 72.9
Avg Pts Against 75.8 68.0
Massey -9.2 (#302) 7.3 (#83)
Bradley-Terry -1.74 (#314) 2.67 (#31)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.75 (#328) 3.31 (#35)
RPI 0.413 (#323) 0.608 (#34)
Shooting & Four Factors LUC GMU
FG% 42.0% 48.3%
3PT% 31.3% 34.1%
REB / G 34.6 36.5
OREB / G 11.6 9.8
AST / TO 1.05 1.43
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.5% 54.0%
TOV% 19.8% 14.2%
ORB% 33.8% 31.1%
FT Rate 24.7% 36.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.6% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 12.6% 16.7%
DRB% 67.1% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.4% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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