Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LUC +525 GMU -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -13.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.0 (+5.0) | 139.8 (+16.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -11.2 (+3.2) | 139.7 (+16.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.3 (+4.3) | 140.0 (+16.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -11.1 (+3.1) | 141.6 (+14.4) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | GMU 58 – 53 LUC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LUC 80 – 59 GMU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | LUC 85 – 79 GMU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | LUC 69 – 61 GMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | GMU 86 – 75 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-10 | 17-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#302) | 7.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#314) | 2.67 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#328) | 3.31 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#323) | 0.608 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 36.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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