Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -188 LUC +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -5.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.0 (-11.0) | 136.1 (+27.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.1 (-11.1) | 135.4 (+28.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.8 (-10.8) | 135.5 (+28.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.9 (-10.9) | 136.2 (+27.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | GMU 82 – 74 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GMU 58 – 53 LUC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LUC 80 – 59 GMU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | LUC 69 – 61 GMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | GMU 86 – 75 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#97) | 3.8 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#85) | 1.08 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#92) | 1.09 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#70) | 0.558 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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