Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -250 GMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -2.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.4 (+18.6) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.4 (+20.6) | 134.6 (+4.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.3 (+17.7) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.4 (+18.6) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | GMU 82 – 74 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GMU 58 – 53 LUC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | LUC 85 – 79 GMU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | LUC 69 – 61 GMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | GMU 86 – 75 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | 6.3 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#62) | 1.36 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#78) | 1.59 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#50) | 0.578 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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