Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -213 LUC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -12.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -12.0 (-1.0) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -8.7 (+2.3) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.1 (+0.9) | 137.7 (+23.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.6 (+0.4) | 138.3 (+22.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | GMU 82 – 74 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GMU 58 – 53 LUC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LUC 80 – 59 GMU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | LUC 85 – 79 GMU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | LUC 69 – 61 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#120) | -5.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#132) | -0.93 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#127) | -1.07 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#82) | 0.442 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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