Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -280 LUC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -11.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -11.1 (-6.1) | 135.5 (-24.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -10.4 (-5.4) | 137.1 (-26.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.8 (-5.8) | 138.6 (-27.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -11.3 (-6.3) | 136.1 (-25.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | GMU 82 – 74 LUC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LUC 80 – 59 GMU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | LUC 85 – 79 GMU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | LUC 69 – 61 GMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | GMU 86 – 75 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#74) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#45) | 0.55 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#52) | 0.516 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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