Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -250 UCF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -4.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -5.0 (+4.0) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -2.7 (+6.3) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -4.6 (+4.4) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -4.8 (+4.2) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#60) | 8.3 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#94) | 1.11 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#94) | 1.48 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.555 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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