Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU +188 SOU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.6 (+26.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.2 (+25.2) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.3 (+25.3) | 142.2 (+0.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.9 (+26.9) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.2 (+26.2) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#341) | -2.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#346) | -0.28 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#349) | -0.54 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#358) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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