Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -163 WAG +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -3.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.6 (-5.6) | 138.6 (+23.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.0 (-4.0) | 138.2 (+23.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -1.6 (-5.6) | 140.7 (+21.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -1.9 (-5.9) | 142.0 (+20.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#305) | -7.6 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#274) | -1.19 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#282) | -1.75 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#285) | 0.448 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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