Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +110 SEMO -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -0.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.5 (+2.5) | 155.6 (+6.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -0.1 (+1.9) | 153.4 (+8.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -0.0 (+2.0) | 153.4 (+8.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.4 (+2.4) | 155.4 (+6.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#299) | -3.9 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#309) | -0.54 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#306) | -0.91 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#306) | 0.489 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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