Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -1600 MSM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +30 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -16.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -13.1 (+16.9) | 137.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -15.7 (+14.3) | 134.1 (-2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -13.2 (+16.8) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -14.1 (+15.9) | 137.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSM 83 – 76 IONA |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MSM 66 – 59 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | IONA 70 – 67 MSM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#79) | -6.3 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#101) | -1.76 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#97) | -2.09 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#75) | 0.421 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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