Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -110 IONA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -4.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.7 (-6.7) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.1 (-6.1) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.6 (-6.6) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.9 (-6.9) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSM 83 – 76 IONA |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MSM 66 – 59 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | IONA 87 – 70 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#257) | -7.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#193) | -1.06 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#217) | -1.47 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#171) | 0.447 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 40.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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