Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -185 MSM +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -9.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -6.4 (-13.4) | 139.2 (+19.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -7.4 (-14.4) | 137.2 (+21.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -6.7 (-13.7) | 136.4 (+22.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -8.3 (-15.3) | 138.0 (+21.0) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | MSM 66 – 59 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | IONA 70 – 67 MSM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | IONA 87 – 70 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#232) | -10.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -1.26 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#203) | -1.73 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#181) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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