Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -213 MSM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -4.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -3.5 (+13.5) | 143.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -5.5 (+11.5) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.8 (+14.2) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -2.6 (+14.4) | 144.3 (+12.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSM 83 – 76 IONA |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MSM 66 – 59 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | IONA 70 – 67 MSM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#196) | -1.9 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#250) | -1.33 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#217) | -1.43 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.427 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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