Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MSM +120 IONA -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -7.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -10.0 (+17.0) | 152.8 (-27.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -6.3 (+13.3) | 152.8 (-27.8) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -8.0 (+15.0) | 148.6 (-23.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -7.0 (+14.0) | 149.8 (-24.8) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSM 83 – 76 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | IONA 70 – 67 MSM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | IONA 87 – 70 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#325) | 0.4 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#331) | 0.81 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#331) | 0.73 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#322) | 0.525 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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