Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | INST -333 MUR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +43 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | INST -7.8 (+35.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.9 (+38.1) | 151.8 (+3.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.0 (+39.0) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.4 (+37.6) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.3 (+37.7) | 151.4 (+3.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#110) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#153) | 0.28 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#151) | 0.17 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#163) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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