Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNF -110 JAX +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -0.8 (+6.2) | 136.9 (-13.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -1.0 (+8.0) | 137.0 (-14.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -0.2 (+7.2) | 137.6 (-14.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -0.2 (+7.2) | 138.7 (-15.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | JAX 63 – 56 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNF 81 – 78 JAX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JAX 62 – 50 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#288) | -3.0 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#226) | 0.20 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#238) | 0.06 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#212) | 0.526 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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