Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -188 CAN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -5.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -5.1 (-2.1) | 133.4 (+15.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.1 (-1.1) | 132.7 (+16.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -4.8 (-1.8) | 132.1 (+16.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -5.1 (-2.1) | 134.3 (+14.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NIA 64 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CAN 69 – 59 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#240) | -6.5 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#220) | -1.76 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#236) | -2.13 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#203) | 0.441 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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