Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -700 UNCO +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -12.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.5 (+2.5) | 146.2 (-9.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.2 (+2.8) | 143.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.0 (+3.0) | 145.7 (-8.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.5 (+2.5) | 145.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#115) | -5.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#115) | -0.93 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#115) | -1.14 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#102) | 0.450 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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