Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +210 GRAM -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +13 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -6.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -5.6 (-7.4) | 134.5 (-1.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -4.3 (-8.7) | 132.5 (+0.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -6.2 (-6.8) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -6.0 (-7.0) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 5-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-18 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#348) | -2.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#340) | -0.11 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#343) | 0.01 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#347) | 0.481 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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