Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -1600 UTSA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -15.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -10.9 (+13.1) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -13.7 (+10.3) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -11.2 (+12.8) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -11.3 (+12.7) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2023 | UTSA 75 – 72 MTSU |
| Feb 8, 2022 | MTSU 84 – 75 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-10 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#117) | -8.5 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#107) | -1.53 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#124) | -1.87 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#69) | 0.422 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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