Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +450 MTSU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -8.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.6 (+10.6) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -9.8 (+12.8) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.8 (+10.8) | 147.0 (-0.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -8.2 (+11.2) | 147.6 (-0.6) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2023 | MTSU 84 – 60 UTSA |
| Feb 8, 2022 | MTSU 84 – 75 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-10 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#323) | 3.2 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#301) | 0.76 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#273) | 0.77 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#312) | 0.563 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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