Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -600 AF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -12.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -10.5 (+9.5) | 135.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -10.4 (+9.6) | 134.2 (-10.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -11.3 (+8.7) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -10.8 (+9.2) | 139.3 (-15.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-9 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#48) | 0.8 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#28) | -0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#35) | 0.00 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#11) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.