Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AF +380 NEV -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +14 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -11.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -13.6 (-0.4) | 133.2 (+0.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -11.5 (-2.5) | 130.7 (+3.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -10.8 (-3.2) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -12.4 (-1.6) | 134.6 (-0.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEV 67 – 54 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 8-12 |
| Home | 3-13 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-14 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#279) | 7.4 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#339) | 0.87 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#330) | 1.37 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#333) | 0.525 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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