Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -1400 AF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -20.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -17.3 (-4.3) | 136.6 (-15.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -15.9 (-2.9) | 134.9 (-13.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -16.7 (-3.7) | 135.7 (-14.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -17.1 (-4.1) | 136.1 (-15.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-12 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#32) | -3.6 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#14) | -0.62 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#23) | -0.73 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#19) | 0.434 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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