Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AF +850 NEV -1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -17.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -14.8 (-0.2) | 133.1 (+13.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -15.3 (+0.3) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -14.0 (-1.0) | 132.1 (+14.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -15.7 (+0.7) | 133.4 (+13.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEV 67 – 54 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 12-8 |
| Home | 3-15 | 17-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#337) | 7.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#327) | 1.60 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#320) | 2.11 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#302) | 0.600 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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