Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -25.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -24.3 (-9.3) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -20.4 (-5.4) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -21.1 (-6.1) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -22.8 (-7.8) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEV 67 – 54 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 0-20 |
| Home | 17-2 | 3-15 |
| Away | 4-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#78) | -14.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#74) | -2.34 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#75) | -2.62 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#62) | 0.425 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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