Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -3600 AF +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +35 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -21.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -17.4 (+17.6) | 137.2 (-12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -17.0 (+18.0) | 138.0 (-13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -17.6 (+17.4) | 139.1 (-14.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -17.3 (+17.7) | 139.0 (-14.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEV 67 – 54 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 0-20 |
| Home | 17-2 | 3-15 |
| Away | 4-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#82) | -14.1 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#73) | -2.36 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#75) | -2.65 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#61) | 0.423 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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