Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -7500 AF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -21.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -16.9 (-10.9) | 129.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -18.6 (-12.6) | 126.7 (+3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -15.0 (-9.0) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -16.2 (-10.2) | 132.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEV 67 – 54 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-6 | 3-13 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#60) | -7.5 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#101) | -2.29 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#81) | -2.51 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.390 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.