Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | VT -133 UVA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -0.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -0.3 (+5.7) | 133.8 (+8.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.9 (+5.1) | 131.9 (+10.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.0 (+7.0) | 134.9 (+7.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.4 (+6.4) | 135.7 (+6.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#59) | 13.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#66) | 3.03 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#64) | 3.90 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#62) | 0.633 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.