Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ME +180 UMBC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +35 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.6 (+35.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.9 (+35.9) | 144.6 (-11.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.3 (+36.3) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.1 (+35.1) | 144.2 (-11.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.3 (+35.3) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#268) | -1.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#280) | -0.17 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#277) | -0.30 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#272) | 0.483 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.