Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +120 STMN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +11 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -0.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.2 (-10.8) | 148.4 (-23.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -0.4 (-11.4) | 142.4 (-17.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -0.3 (-11.3) | 146.1 (-21.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -0.1 (-11.1) | 148.1 (-23.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#279) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#244) | -0.02 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#259) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#286) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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