Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -188 MIZ +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.7 (+8.3) | 141.4 (-26.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.8 (+7.2) | 138.0 (-23.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.5 (+8.5) | 141.3 (-26.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.6 (+8.4) | 141.9 (-26.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#51) | 9.8 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#59) | 2.31 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#60) | 2.67 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#87) | 0.593 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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